febrero 18, 2020 12:44 am

ONU: El calentamiento global es cierto y está aqui

ONU: El calentamiento global es cierto y está aqui

 

El mundo deberá emprender transformaciones “rápidas” y “sin precedentes” en sectores como la energía, la industria o las infraestructuras si quiere limitar el alza de las temperaturas a 1.5 grados centígrados, aseguran los expertos de la ONU sobre el cambio climático (IPCC).

El informe del grupo alerta de que los estragos de la subida de la temperatura media global -en torno a un grado centígrado desde que comenzara la revolución industrial a mediados del siglo XIX- ya son una realidad y persistirán.

Al ritmo actual se rebasarán en algún momento entre 2030 y 2052 los 1.5 grados con respecto a la temperatura media preindustrial, por lo que se agudizarán los efectos del calentamiento global sobre la vida en el planeta.

De este modo, el texto, presentado en la ciudad surcoreana de Incheon, destaca la importancia de mantener, tal y como se estableció en el Acuerdo del Clima de París de 2015, el calentamiento global en un nivel inferior a 1.5 grados en vez de por debajo de los 2 grados.

Hacerlo “requeriría cambios rápidos, de amplio alcance y sin precedentes en todos los aspectos de la sociedad”, desde el consumo de energía a la planificación urbana y agrícola, y necesitará mucha más inversión tecnológica para ampliar de forma significativa los recortes de emisiones, dice el reporte.

La siguiente década es crítica. Si no enfilamos el camino correcto ahora podemos alcanzar un calentamiento de 3 grados para fin de siglo, y esto puede devastar muchas regiones y comunidades vulnerables”, cuenta por teléfono Patricia Pinho, coautora del capítulo sobre desarrollo sostenible y reducción de la pobreza.

Pinho, profesora de Ciencias Atmosféricas de la Universidad de Sao Paulo, cree que el informe destaca porque establece “las posibilidades que la gente tiene para adaptarse” al calentamiento global y porque es “el primero en relacionar los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible de la ONU con el cambio climático”.

Con más 6 mil referencias científicas y firmado por 91 expertos de 40 países, el texto examina vías para limitar el calentamiento hasta 1.5 grados, y compara escenarios y modelos para subidas por debajo y por encima de ese límite.

Las conclusiones no pueden ser más claras: los efectos para los ecosistemas y la vida en el planeta serán mucho menos catastróficos si el tope se sitúa en 1.5 grados y no en 2.

Valerie Masson-Delmotte, que ha coliderado uno de los grupos de trabajo, aseguró en la presentación de hoy que “este informe tiene datos científicos más robustos (que anteriores estudios) y prueba que medio grado importa”.

Por ejemplo, se establece que acotar el calentamiento por debajo de 1.5 grados evitaría una mayor extinción de especies o que reduciría la subida del nivel del mar en 10 centímetros para 2100, salvando muchas zonas costeras y litorales.

A su vez, superar los 1.5 grados depararía más calor extremo, lluvias torrenciales y probabilidad de sequías, algo que afectará a la producción de alimentos, sobre todo en zonas sensibles como el Mediterráneo o Latinoamérica.

También afectará a la salud, suministros de agua y crecimiento económico, con un impacto especialmente negativo sobre las poblaciones más pobres.

Lo que necesitamos es una transición global con respecto a cómo nos desplazamos, producimos, consumimos y comemos, porque sí, necesitamos dietas más sostenibles y menos basadas, por ejemplo, en la carne bovina, cuyos efectos sobre el calentamiento global son enormes”, apunta Pinho.

El informe, dirigido a países de la Convención Marco de la ONU sobre el Cambio Climático, será usado como base para las discusiones de la vigésimo cuarta cumbre del clima (COP24) que se celebra en Katowice (Polonia) este diciembre.

El informe prueba que limitar el cambio climático a 1.5 grados es posible desde el punto de vista químico, físico y tecnológico si va acompañado de un cambio en los estilos de vida y de financiación suficiente, advirtió por su parte Jim Skea, que también ha liderado un grupo de trabajo.

Sin embargo, el último elemento y el más importante corresponde a los Gobiernos, que hasta el momento no han hecho suficiente y que son quienes deben decidir si el plan (para limitar el calentamiento global) es factible o no”, agregó.

En ese sentido, recordó que el mensaje va dirigido a los países de la Convención Marco “incluido Estados Unidos”, pese a la decisión del presidente estadounidense, Donald Trump, de abandonar el Acuerdo de París, algo que se hará efectivo en 2020.

Junto a Estados Unidos, segundo mayor emisor mundial, el dossier pone también las miradas en China, el mayor emisor, y también el consumidor y productor mundial de carbón, recurso cuyo uso global para generar electricidad debería quedar prácticamente en cero para 2050, si se quiere cumplir el objetivo de los 1.5 grados.

About The Author

Director Nacional de Noticias XtiTV / Editorialista en El Occidental y Conciencia Publica / Vaticanista 🇲🇽 🇻🇦

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