septiembre 22, 2020 8:53 am

Pensiones: La crisis que viene

Pensiones: La crisis que viene

Por: Ramiro Escoto Ratkovich / Director Naconal de Noticias XtiTv

El sistema de pensiones de al menos 18 estados del país es insostenible y requiere de una reforma para hacerlo viable en el largo plazo, advierten especialistas.

Según un estudio de la consultoría Aregional, de las 18 entidades de la República Mexicana, ocho están en fase crítica y el resto tendrán que aplicar modificaciones en sus leyes, ya que de 10 a 20 años se encontrarán en el mismo problema, que hoy los lleva a tomar recursos del gasto corriente.

Las modificaciones deben garantizar la portabilidad para que los trabajadores no pierdan su antigüedad y ahorros en caso de cambiar de empleo, especialmente del sector público al privado, un tema que será discutido este 8 y 9 de octubre en la Tercera Convención Nacional de Afores, organizada por Amafore.

La complicación es que los esquemas de financiamiento existentes son inadecuados, lo cual es superado por un crecimiento de la población exponencial, diagnostica Flavia Rodríguez, directora general de la consultoría Aregional.

EN CRISIS, PENSIONES EN EL PAÍS. GRÁFICO: DANIEL RAZO / HERALDO DE MÉXICO

DESAFÍO

Carlos Noriega, presidente de la Amafore, señaló recientemente que en 2050 habrá 24.3 millones de personas de 65 años y más, que representarán 20 por ciento de la población nacional.

De no tomarse las medidas necesarias, advirtió, 10 millones vivirán en pobreza, 6.3 millones no tendrán pensión y 15.3 millones sufrirán una enfermedad crónica-degenerativa.

De acuerdo con la Consar, actualmente 26 de cada 100 adultos mayores no tienen pensión contributiva (aquella ligada al sector formal) ni por programas sociales.

En México, los bajos niveles de cobertura han sido parcialmente cubiertos con programas no contributivos. Si bien éstos han permitido ampliar la cobertura, no representan una solución estructural al problema, señaló la Consar, presidida por Carlos Ramírez.

Carlos Urzúa, próximo titular de Hacienda, reconoció la urgencia de realizar una reforma del sistema de pensiones. De hecho, entre los planes del nuevo gobierno está impulsarla.

Jesús Sánchez, investigador de la UNAM, considera que estas reformas son un tema que no se puede patear de una a otra administración, porque (el problema) crece como una bola de nieve a medida que la esperanza de vida avanza y lacera las finanzas federales y estatales.

Sin embargo, no todos los casos son igual. Algunos estados requieren cambios con más urgencia. Los más apremiantes son los de Colima, Morelos y Querétaro, debido a que carecen de un sistema formal, por lo que pagan sus obligaciones con recursos del gasto corriente, señala Aregional.

También destacan los casos de Chiapas, Durango, Michoacán, Nayarit y San Luis Potosí, que tienen un sistema pensionario con beneficios definidos, donde los trabajadores activos pagan las jubilaciones de los retirados.

El resto de las entidades tiene una mayor viabilidad, pero no la suficiente para dar certidumbre en el largo plazo. En esta situación se encuentran el Estado de México, Tabasco, Campeche, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Puebla, Sonora, Tamaulipas, Veracruz y Yucatán.

About The Author

Director Nacional de Noticias XtiTV / Editorialista en El Occidental y Conciencia Publica / Vaticanista 🇲🇽 🇻🇦

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